Interesting post by my friend Alex Conant today expanding on Malcolm Gladwell's essay on underdogs in The New Yorker. Alex writes:
The piece credibly argues that underdogs can substitute effort for skill by playing within the literal rules rather than social norms, and stretching out the playing field as much as possible rather than attacking the opponent head-on.
Gladwell focuses on basketball and war, but I think you could also apply the theory to explain Barack Obama’s win over Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination...The theory is also encouraging for Republicans, many of whom see a long and uphill road back to power against a more powerful and better organized Democratic Party. But as Gladwell reminds us, the only thing standing between underdogs and victory is hard work and innovative thinking.
I was most struck by that last insight: "the only thing standing between underdogs and victory is hard work and innovative thinking." Therein lies the key hurdle for Republicans. Republicans are working hard, as anyone on Joe Pounder's email list can attest. They are also taking steps to better organize and develop ideas as a credible opposition. The National Council on a New America effort being spearheaded by Rep. Eric Cantor and others is a step in the right direction.
While Obama's political skills and approval ratings present Republicans seeking to rebuild the party with daunting obstacles, history gives a measure of comfort. Even the greatest Presidents don't stay on top of the world forever. George Washington weathered a bruising political battle over his support of the Jay Treaty, a treaty with Great Britain that was vehemently opposed by Thomas Jefferson and his supporters. The issue provided the political steam that transformed the Jeffersonian movement into the Republican Party and created the first party system in the U.S. with Hamiltonian Federalists and Jeffersonian Republicans vying for political power. It sometimes takes only one issue to catalyze support for the underdog and give birth to a real movement.
As dark as things may seem for Republicans, like George Washington and all Presidents before him, Mr. Obama will reveal chinks even in his formidable armor, prompting voters to ask if there might be a better way. When voters start asking this question, an effective opposition party must be ready to answer with a coherent competing vision for the future of the country.
There are opportunities for Republicans. The Administration’s lack of substantive follow-through on promises of fiscal responsibility will not sit well with voters over time. Rhetoric and a compliant press can’t paper over this reality forever. Additionally, the financial rescue, while grand in scale, has been far from flawless in execution. Finally, the undertow from the left will inevitably drag the Obama administration towards out of the mainstream policies.
The distance between the wilderness in which the Republicans now find themselves and success as a newly ascendant party will be measured by the strength of the alternative ideas they present to the American public. The Republican brand is badly damaged, but it’s not broken beyond repair. Rebuilding will be a struggle, but that’s what it means to be an underdog.
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